Too-Systemic-to-Fail: What Option Markets Imply about Sector-Wide Government Guarantees

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2016
Volume: 106
Issue: 6
Pages: 1278-1319

Authors (3)

Bryan Kelly (not in RePEc) Hanno Lustig (not in RePEc) Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh (Centre for Economic Policy Res...)

Score contribution per author:

2.681 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We examine the pricing of financial crash insurance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis in US option markets, and we show that a large amount of aggregate tail risk is missing from the cost of financial sector crash insurance during the crisis. The difference in costs between out-of-the-money put options for individual banks and puts on the financial sector index increases four-fold from its precrisis 2003-2007 level. We provide evidence that a collective government guarantee for the financial sector lowers index put prices far more than those of individual banks and explains the increase in the basket-index put spread.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:6:p:1278-1319
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29