A Preferred-Habitat Model of Term Premia, Exchange Rates, and Monetary Policy Spillovers

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2025
Volume: 115
Issue: 11
Pages: 3788-3824

Authors (3)

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (not in RePEc) Walker Ray (not in RePEc) Dimitri Vayanos (London School of Economics (LS...)

Score contribution per author:

2.681 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We develop a two-country model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles, and segmentation is partly overcome by arbitrageurs with limited capital. Risk premia in our model are time-varying, connected across markets, and consistent with the empirical violations of uncovered interest parity and expectations hypothesis. Through risk premia, large-scale bond purchases lower domestic and foreign bond yields and depreciate the currency, and short-rate cuts lower foreign yields, with smaller effects than bond purchases. Currency returns are disconnected from long-maturity bond returns, and yet the currency market is instrumental in transmitting bond demand shocks across countries.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:115:y:2025:i:11:p:3788-3824
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29