Global output growth and volatility spillovers

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2013
Volume: 45
Issue: 5
Pages: 637-649

Authors (3)

Abbas Valadkhani (Swinburne University of Techno...) Charles Harvie (not in RePEc) Indika Karunanayake (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.335 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This article examines discernable patterns of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth co-movements across 29 countries, using consistent time series data (1912--2008). Of these countries, only 12 are found to form three statistically significant groupings (i.e. G6-six Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) European countries, G4-four Anglo-Saxon countries, and G2-two major Asian countries). One may then conclude that, <italic>inter alia</italic>, geographical proximity, cultural ties, and the level of socio-economic and financial ties among countries determine the global systematic co-movements of growth rates. Our results indicate that any recession in the US initially engulfs other Anglo-Saxon countries as well as G6 and G2 countries, before exerting its adverse knock-on effects to the rest of the world. A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model is also used to examine the transmission of GDP growth across these three groups and their corresponding volatility spillovers. We find significant bi-directional cross-mean spillovers between the G4 and G6 blocs. In terms of cross-volatility spillovers, the estimated persistence varies from a maximum 0.959 (G4--G6) to a minimum of 0.832 (G2--G4).

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:5:p:637-649
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29