FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS: SURVEY AND SYNTHESIS

C-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Surveys
Year: 2008
Volume: 22
Issue: 1
Pages: 140-165

Score contribution per author:

0.335 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Abstract This paper reviews the empirical literature on foreign exchange rate expectations. Prominent issues are the forward premium puzzle, expectations formation in financial markets, heterogeneity of expectations, market microstructure, time‐varying risk premiums and forecast performance. Although much has been learned in each field, this survey highlights the areas of research in which our understanding of the mechanism of exchange rate expectations is still incomplete. Our survey suggests that both irrational expectations and time‐varying risk premiums account for the forward discount anomaly, that long‐term expectations reverse towards their long‐run equilibrium values and that heterogeneous behaviour of market participants has the potential of explaining some of the empirical regularities in the international finance literature.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:jecsur:v:22:y:2008:i:1:p:140-165
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29