Optimal Trend Inflation

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2019
Volume: 109
Issue: 2
Pages: 702-37

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Sticky price models featuring heterogeneous firms and systematic firm-level productivity trends deliver radically different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than their popular homogenous-firm counterparts: (i) the optimal steady-state inflation rate generically differs from zero and (ii) inflation optimally responds to productivity disturbances. We show this by aggregating a heterogeneous-firm model with sticky prices in closed form. Using firm-level data from the US Census Bureau, we estimate the historically optimal inflation path for the US economy: the optimal inflation rate ranges between 1 percent and 3 percent per year and displays a downward trend over the period 1977–2015.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:2:p:702-37
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24