The forecasting accuracy of implied volatility from ECX carbon options

A-Tier
Journal: Energy Economics
Year: 2014
Volume: 45
Issue: C
Pages: 475-484

Authors (3)

Viteva, Svetlana (not in RePEc) Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia V. (Monash University) Campbell, Kevin (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This study analyzes the forecasting accuracy of the implied volatility of options on futures contracts for the delivery of CO2 emission allowances (carbon options) traded on the European Climate Exchange. We demonstrate that option implied volatility is highly informative about the variance of returns realized over the remaining life of the options. It is also directionally accurate in predicting future volatility changes. However, we also find that implied volatility of carbon options is biased, especially for periods of time which do not coincide with the remaining life of the option. This suggests that the market has yet to fully mature.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eneeco:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:475-484
Journal Field
Energy
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29