Copula stochastic volatility in oil returns: Approximate Bayesian computation with volatility prediction

A-Tier
Journal: Energy Economics
Year: 2020
Volume: 92
Issue: C

Authors (3)

Virbickaitė, Audronė (CUNEF Universidad) Ausín, M. Concepción (not in RePEc) Galeano, Pedro (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Modeling the volatility of energy commodity returns has become a topic of increased interest in recent years, because of the important role it plays in today's economy. In this paper we propose a novel copula-based stochastic volatility model for energy commodity returns that allows for asymmetric volatility persistence. We employ Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), a powerful tool to make inferences and predictions for such highly-nonlinear model. We carry out two simulation studies to illustrate that ABC is an appropriate alternative to standard MCMC-based methods when the state transition process is challenging to implement. Finally, we model the volatility of WTI and Brent oil futures' returns with the proposed copula-based stochastic volatility model and show that such model outperforms symmetric alternatives in terms of in- and out-of-sample volatility prediction accuracy.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eneeco:v:92:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320303017
Journal Field
Energy
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29