Information demand and stock return predictability

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance
Year: 2018
Volume: 80
Issue: C
Pages: 59-74

Authors (3)

Chronopoulos, Dimitris K. (not in RePEc) Papadimitriou, Fotios I. (not in RePEc) Vlastakis, Nikolaos (University of East Anglia)

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Recent theoretical work suggests that signs of asset returns are predictable given that their volatilities are. This paper investigates this conjecture using information demand, approximated by the daily internet search volume index (SVI) from Google. Our results reveal that incorporating the SVI variable in various GARCH family models significantly improves volatility forecasts. Moreover, we demonstrate that the sign of stock returns is predictable contrary to the levels, where predictability has proven elusive in the US context. Finally, we provide novel evidence on the economic value of sign predictability and show that investors can form profitable investment strategies using the SVI.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jimfin:v:80:y:2018:i:c:p:59-74
Journal Field
International
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29