Does the Lucas critique apply during hyperinflation?: empirical evidence from four hyperinflationary episodes

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2002
Volume: 34
Issue: 11
Pages: 1389-1397

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Farmer (Review of Economic Studies, 58, 321-32, 1991) suggests that in a model in which there are multiple rational expectations equilibria agents may find it useful to coordinate their expectations in a unique rational expectations equilibrium which is supported by a self-fulfilling forecast rule having the property of being immune to the Lucas Critique. In this paper, Farmer's hypothesis is tested using data from hyperinflationary episodes. It is believed that those episodes are suitable for testing this hypothesis because an agent who lives in a hyperinflationary environment usually faces frequent changes in policy regime. The agent may thus choose a selffulfilling forecast rule which is immune to the Lucas Critique as a way of hedging against unanticipated policy regime switches. The empirical results show mixed evidence on Farmer's hypothesis during the hyperinflationary episodes studied.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:11:p:1389-1397
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-29