The effects of surprise and anticipated technology changes on international relative prices and trade

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of International Economics
Year: 2015
Volume: 97
Issue: 1
Pages: 162-177

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper argues that it is important to distinguish surprise and anticipated components of total factor productivity (TFP) when we study the international transmission of TFP shocks. We document that surprise and anticipated shocks to US TFP induce distinct dynamics for international relative prices (the real exchange rate and the terms of trade) and international trade (real exports, real imports, and the trade balance). Our empirical findings can reconcile some conflicting empirical results in the literature and hence lead to a better understanding of the international transmission of TFP shocks. In addition, we evaluate a standard international macroeconomic model and discuss the mechanisms that may help to replicate our empirical findings.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:inecon:v:97:y:2015:i:1:p:162-177
Journal Field
International
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29