Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?

B-Tier
Journal: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
Year: 2019
Issue: 1 (Spring)
Pages: 333-404

Authors (4)

Stephanie R. Aaronson (not in RePEc) Mary C. Daly (not in RePEc) William L. Wascher (Federal Reserve Board (Board o...) David W. Wilcox (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Previous research has shown that the labor market experiences of less advantaged groups are more cyclically sensitive than the labor market experiences of more advantaged groups; in other words, less advantaged groups experience a high-beta version of the aggregate fluctuations in the labor market. For example, when the unemployment rate of whites increases by 1 percentage point, the unemployment rates of African Americans and Hispanics rise by well more than 1 percentage point, on average. This behavior is observed across other labor market indicators, and is roughly reversed when the unemployment rate declines. We update this work to include the post- Great Recession period and extend the analysis to consider whether these high-beta relationships change when the labor market is especially tight. We find suggestive evidence that when the labor market is already strong, a further increment of strengthening provides a modest extra benefit to some disadvantaged groups, relative to earlier in the labor market cycle. In addition, we provide preliminary evidence suggesting that these gains are somewhat persistent for African Americans and women.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bin:bpeajo:v:50:y:2019:i:2019-01:p:333-404
Journal Field
General
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-29