Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
Predictability of macroeconomic and financial variables is an important issue in economics. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric test for the predictability of the direction of price changes. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that our method displays better finite-sample property than the traditional parametric Granger causality test~(Granger, 1969) and two nonparametric causality tests of~Hiemstra and Jones (1994) and Diks and Panchenko (2006).