A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles

S-Tier
Journal: Quarterly Journal of Economics
Year: 1987
Volume: 102
Issue: 3
Pages: 553-580

Score contribution per author:

8.043 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

The set of parameters needed to calculate the expected present discounted value of a stream of dividends can be estimated in two ways. One may test for speculative bubbles, or fads, by testing whether the two estimates are the same. When the test is applied to some annual U. S. stock market data, the data usually reject the null hypothesis of no bubbles. The test is of general interest, since it may be applied to a wide class of linear rational expectations models.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:qjecon:v:102:y:1987:i:3:p:553-580.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-29