On the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion: Empirical evidence and theoretical explanations

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Year: 2017
Volume: 80
Issue: C
Pages: 34-53

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

After showing that the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion, i.e. the log difference between its real stock market index and its real fundamental value, is bimodal, we demonstrate that agent-based financial market models may explain this puzzling observation. Within these models, speculators apply technical and fundamental analysis to predict asset prices. Since destabilizing technical trading dominates the market near the fundamental value, asset prices tend to be either overvalued or undervalued. Interestingly, the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion confirms an implicit prediction of a number of seminal agent-based financial market models.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:dyncon:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:34-53
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29