Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
We propose an empirically motivated financial market model in which speculators rely on trend-following, contrarian and fundamental trading rules to determine their orders. Speculators’ probabilistic rule-selection behavior – the only type of intrinsic randomness in our model – depends on past and current performance indicators. Our model replicates a number of important stylized facts of financial markets, most noteworthy their approximate random walk price behavior. For a large number of speculators, the model’s intrinsic randomness vanishes and its dynamics is driven by an analytically tractable nonlinear map. An in-depth investigation into this map provides the key to understanding how the model functions.