UNCERTAINTY, LONG‐RUN, AND MONETARY POLICY RISKS IN A TWO‐COUNTRY MACRO MODEL

B-Tier
Journal: International Economic Review
Year: 2024
Volume: 65
Issue: 3
Pages: 1387-1413

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study the currency risk premium and the forward premium bias in a two‐country New Keynesian model with production, no physical capital, and recursive utility. Monetary policy follows an interest rate feedback rule and exogenous total factor productivity (TFP) growth follows a long‐run risk process with stochastic volatility, which we estimate from data. With cross‐country heterogeneity in TFP and monetary policy, reasonable currency risk premia emerge under complete and incomplete markets but the forward premium bias is trivial. We diagnose the challenge faced by this fairly standard production model to explain the forward premium bias.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:iecrev:v:65:y:2024:i:3:p:1387-1413
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24