What Goes Up May Not Come Down: Asymmetric Incidence of Value-Added Taxes

S-Tier
Journal: Journal of Political Economy
Year: 2020
Volume: 128
Issue: 12
Pages: 4438 - 4474

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper provides evidence that prices respond significantly more strongly to increases than to decreases in value-added taxes (VATs). First, using two plausibly exogenous VAT changes, we show that prices respond twice as much to VAT increases as to VAT decreases. Second, we show that this asymmetry results in higher equilibrium profits and markups. Third, we find that firms operating with low profit margins are particularly likely to respond asymmetrically to VAT changes. Fourth, these asymmetric price effects persist several years after VAT changes take place. Fifth, using all VAT changes in the European Union from 1996 to 2015, we find similar levels of asymmetry.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/710558
Journal Field
General
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-24