Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2011
Volume: 101
Issue: 4
Pages: 1514-34

Score contribution per author:

8.043 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper provides cross-country empirical evidence on term premia. I construct a panel of zero-coupon nominal government bond yields spanning ten industrialized countries and nearly two decades. I hence compute forward rates and use two different methods to decompose these forward rates into expected future short-term interest rates and term premiums. The first method uses an affine term structure model with macroeconomic variables as unspanned risk factors; the second method uses surveys. I find that term premiums declined internationally over the sample period, especially in countries that apparently reduced inflation uncertainty by making substantial changes in their monetary policy frameworks. (JEL E13, E43, E52, G12, H63)

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:4:p:1514-34
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-29