When Moving‐Average Models Meet High‐Frequency Data: Uniform Inference on Volatility

S-Tier
Journal: Econometrica
Year: 2021
Volume: 89
Issue: 6
Pages: 2787-2825

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We conduct inference on volatility with noisy high‐frequency data. We assume the observed transaction price follows a continuous‐time Itô‐semimartingale, contaminated by a discrete‐time moving‐average noise process associated with the arrival of trades. We estimate volatility, defined as the quadratic variation of the semimartingale, by maximizing the likelihood of a misspecified moving‐average model, with its order selected based on an information criterion. Our inference is uniformly valid over a large class of noise processes whose magnitude and dependence structure vary with sample size. We show that the convergence rate of our estimator dominates n1/4 as noise vanishes, and is determined by the selected order of noise dependence when noise is sufficiently small. Our implementation guarantees positive estimates in finite samples.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:emetrp:v:89:y:2021:i:6:p:2787-2825
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29