Global Financial Risk, Equity Returns and Economic Activity in Emerging Countries

B-Tier
Journal: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Year: 2024
Volume: 86
Issue: 3
Pages: 672-689

Authors (2)

Jaroslav Horvath (not in RePEc) Guanyi Yang (Colorado College)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

International financial integration exposes countries to external shocks. This paper identifies the impact and transmission of global financial risk (GFR) shocks to emerging market economies (EMEs). Heightened GFR significantly raises EME borrowing costs and lowers equity returns, reducing domestic economic activity. We document a novel transmission channel of GFR shocks to EMEs via international capital flows. Countries experiencing larger capital inflows are more affected by GFR fluctuations. Exploring the transmission through capital flows, GFR shocks affect EMEs mainly through their effect on equity returns, instead of country spreads. We show that equity returns contain more information about EME macroeconomic fluctuations than sovereign and corporate bond spreads.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:obuest:v:86:y:2024:i:3:p:672-689
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29