A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Information‐Based Trading: Theory and Applications

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Year: 2015
Volume: 30
Issue: 7
Pages: 1210-1234

Authors (2)

Xiangkang Yin (Deakin University) Jing Zhao (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper develops a novel approach to information‐based securities trading by characterizing the hidden state of the market, which varies following a Markov process. Extensive simulation demonstrates that the approach can successfully identify market states and generate dynamic measures of information‐based trading that outperform prevailing models. A sample of 120 NYSE stocks further verifies that it can better depict trading dynamics. With this sample, we characterize the features of information asymmetry and belief dispersion around earnings announcements. The sample is also applied to the study of the co‐movements of trading activities due to private information or disputable public information. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:japmet:v:30:y:2015:i:7:p:1210-1234
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29