Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

A-Tier
Journal: Energy Economics
Year: 2009
Volume: 31
Issue: 1
Pages: 119-125

Authors (3)

Kang, Sang Hoon (not in RePEc) Kang, Sang-Mok (not in RePEc) Yoon, Seong-Min (Pusan National University)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets -- Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) -- with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eneeco:v:31:y:2009:i:1:p:119-125
Journal Field
Energy
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29