Exploring conditions for the optimality of naïve bayes

B-Tier
Journal: Review of Finance
Year: 2021
Volume: 25
Issue: 4
Pages: 997-1046

Authors (2)

Matthias M M Buehlmaier (not in RePEc) Josef Zechner (Centre for Economic Policy Res...)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Using merger announcements and applying methods from computational linguistics we find strong evidence that stock prices underreact to information in financial media. A one standard deviation increase in the media-implied probability of merger completion increases the subsequent 12-day return of a long-short merger strategy by 1.2 percentage points. Filtering out the 28% of announced deals with the lowest media-implied completion probability increases the annualized alpha from merger arbitrage by 9.3 percentage points. Our results are particularly pronounced when high-yield spreads are large and on days when only few merger deals are announced.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:revfin:v:25:y:2021:i:4:p:997-1046.
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29