Ellsberg meets Keynes at an urn

B-Tier
Journal: Quantitative Economics
Year: 2023
Volume: 14
Issue: 3
Pages: 1133-1162

Authors (3)

Soo Hong Chew (not in RePEc) Bin Miao (not in RePEc) Songfa Zhong (National University of Singapo...)

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Keynes (1921) and Ellsberg (1961) have articulated an aversion toward betting on an urn containing balls of two colors of unknown proportion to one with a 50–50 composition. Keynes views this as reflecting different preferences for bets arising from different sources of uncertainty. Ellsberg describes this as weighting the priors arising from the unknown urn pessimistically. In two experiments, we observe substantial links between attitude toward almost‐objective uncertainty and attitudes toward multiple‐prior uncertainties in terms of ambiguity and its corresponding compound risk. Our findings point to a shared component across domains of uncertainty and motivate the need for further theoretical development.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:quante:v:14:y:2023:i:3:p:1133-1162
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29