Country-level analyst recommendations and international stock market returns

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance
Year: 2019
Volume: 103
Issue: C
Pages: 1-17

Authors (2)

Berkman, Henk (University of Auckland) Yang, Wanyi (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This study defines the aggregate analyst recommendation for a country as the value-weighted average of all outstanding recommendations for shares of firms incorporated in that country. We show that country-level analyst recommendations predict international stock market returns. A trading strategy based on country-level recommendations yields an abnormal return of around 1% per month. Aggregate recommendations also help to predict changes in gross domestic product and aggregate earnings surprises. Overall, we find that country-level analyst recommendations provide useful information to predict future aggregate cash flows and associated market returns across different countries.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jbfina:v:103:y:2019:i:c:p:1-17
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24