Segmenting mean-nonstationary time series via trending regressions

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Econometrics
Year: 2012
Volume: 168
Issue: 2
Pages: 367-381

Authors (3)

Aue, Alexander (not in RePEc) Horváth, Lajos (University of Utah) Hušková, Marie (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a segmentation procedure for mean-nonstationary time series. The segmentation is obtained by casting the problem into the framework of detecting structural breaks in trending regression models in which the regressors are generated by suitably smooth functions. As test statistics we propose to use the maximally selected likelihood ratio statistics and a related statistics based on partial sums of weighted residuals. The main theoretical contribution of the paper establishes the extreme value distribution of these statistics and their consistency. To circumvent the slow convergence to the extreme value limit, we propose to employ a version of the circular bootstrap. This procedure is completely data-driven and does not require knowledge of the time series structure. In an empirical part, we show in a simulation study and applications to air carrier traffic and S&P500 data that the finite sample performance is very satisfactory.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:econom:v:168:y:2012:i:2:p:367-381
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-02-02