Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
type="main" xml:id="obes12069-abs-0001"> <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>This paper merges two specifications recently developed in the forecasting literature: the MS-MIDAS model (Guérin and Marcellino, 2013) and the factor-MIDAS model (Marcellino and Schumacher, 2010). The MS-factor MIDAS model that we introduce incorporates the information provided by a large data set consisting of mixed frequency variables and captures regime-switching behaviours. Monte Carlo simulations show that this specification tracks the dynamics of the process and predicts the regime switches successfully, both in-sample and out-of-sample. We apply this model to US data from 1959 to 2010 and properly detect recessions by exploiting the link between GDP growth and higher frequency financial variables.