Granger Causality, Rational Expectations and Aversion to Unemployment and Inflation.

B-Tier
Journal: Public Choice
Year: 1994
Volume: 80
Issue: 1-2
Pages: 9-21

Authors (1)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper presents a new test for rational expectations. This is done within the context of public concern, or aversion, over inflation and unemployment. It is found that inflation aversion Granger causes inflation but unemployment aversion does not Granger cause unemployment. This implies both that inflation aversion is partially determined by expected inflation and that such expectations have a rational element. However, rational expectations of unemployment do not determine unemployment aversion. The consequences of these results for political business cycle theory are then examined. Copyright 1994 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:kap:pubcho:v:80:y:1994:i:1-2:p:9-21
Journal Field
Public
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-02-02