Explaining credit default swap spreads with equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms

B-Tier
Journal: Review of Finance
Year: 2020
Volume: 24
Issue: 1
Pages: 45-98

Authors (3)

Jing-Zhi Huang (Pennsylvania State University) Zhan Shi (not in RePEc) Hao Zhou (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Empirical studies of structural credit risk models so far are often based on calibration, rolling estimation, or regressions. This paper proposes a GMM-based method that allows us to estimate model parameters and test model-implied restrictions in a unified framework. We conduct a specification analysis of five representative structural models based on the proposed GMM procedure, using information from both equity volatility and the term structure of single-name credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Our test results strongly reject the Merton (1974) model and two diffusion-based models with a flat default boundary. The other two models, one with jumps and one with stationary leverage ratios, do improve the overall fit of CDS spreads and equity volatility. However, all five models have difficulty capturing the dynamic behavior of both equity volatility and CDS spreads, especially for investment-grade names. On the other hand, these models have a much better ability to explain the sensitivity of CDS spreads to equity returns.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:revfin:v:24:y:2020:i:1:p:45-98.
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-02-02