Low Frequency Cointegrating Regression with Local to Unity Regressors and Unknown Form of Serial Dependence

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Year: 2024
Volume: 42
Issue: 1
Pages: 160-173

Authors (2)

Jungbin Hwang (University of Connecticut) Gonzalo Valdés (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This article develops new t and F tests in a low-frequency transformed triangular cointegrating regression when one may not be certain that the economic variables are exact unit root processes. We first show that the low-frequency transformed and augmented OLS (TA-OLS) method exhibits an asymptotic bias term in its limiting distribution. As a result, the test for the cointegration vector can have substantially large size distortion, even with minor deviations from the unit root regressors. To correct the asymptotic bias of the TA-OLS statistics for the cointegration vector, we develop modified TA-OLS statistics that adjust the bias and take account of the estimation uncertainty of the long-run endogeneity arising from the bias correction. Based on the modified test statistics, we provide Bonferroni-based tests of the cointegration vector using standard t and F critical values. Monte Carlo results show that our approach has the correct size and reasonable power for a wide range of local-to-unity parameters. Additionally, our method has advantages over the IVX approach when the serial dependence and the long-run endogeneity in the cointegration system are important.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:jnlbes:v:42:y:2024:i:1:p:160-173
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-02-02