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α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
Forecasters in the euro area significantly overestimated the economic cost of disinflation during the 2022–2024 monetary tightening. Tighter policy was associated to stronger growth and lower inflation than expected, revealing a lower-than-assumed sacrifice ratio. This misjudgment presumably stems from an overemphasis on supply-side inflation, overlooking demand-driven pressures. Our findings challenge prevailing assumptions about monetary multipliers and offer critical insights for future policy design.