Learning, Large Deviations and Rare Events

B-Tier
Journal: Review of Economic Dynamics
Year: 2014
Volume: 17
Issue: 3
Pages: 367-382

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We examine the role of generalized constant gain stochastic gradient (SGCG) learning in generating large deviations of an endogenous variable from its rational expectations value. We show analytically that these large deviations can occur with a frequency associated with a fat tailed distribution even though the model is driven by thin tailed exogenous stochastic processes. We characterize these large deviations that are driven by sequences of consistently low or consistently high shocks. We then apply our model to the canonical asset-pricing model. We demonstrate that the tails of the stationary distribution of the price-dividend ratio will follow a power law. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:red:issued:12-17
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24