Discontinued Positive Feedback Trading and the Decline of Return Predictability

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Year: 2024
Volume: 59
Issue: 7
Pages: 3062-3100

Authors (4)

Ben-David, Itzhak (Ohio State University) Li, Jiacui (not in RePEc) Rossi, Andrea (not in RePEc) Song, Yang (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We show that demand effects generated by institutional frictions can influence systematic return predictability patterns in stocks and mutual funds. Identification relies on a reform to the Morningstar rating system, which we show caused a structural break in style-level positive feedback trading by mutual funds. As a result, momentum-related factors in stocks, as well as performance persistence and the “dumb money effect” in mutual funds, experienced a sharp decline. Consistent with the proposed channel, return predictability declined right after the reform, was limited to the U.S. market, and was concentrated in factors and mutual funds most exposed to the mechanism.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:cup:jfinqa:v:59:y:2024:i:7:p:3062-3100_3
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-24