What Does Equity Sector Orderflow Tell Us About the Economy?

A-Tier
Journal: The Review of Financial Studies
Year: 2011
Volume: 24
Issue: 11
Pages: 3688-3730

Authors (3)

Alessandro Beber (City University) Michael W. Brandt (not in RePEc) Kenneth A. Kavajecz (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Investors rebalance their portfolios as their views about expected returns and risk change. We use empirical measures of portfolio rebalancing to back out investors' views, specifically, their views about the state of the economy. We show that aggregate portfolio rebalancing across equity sectors is consistent with sector rotation, an investment strategy that exploits perceived differences in the relative performance of sectors at different stages of the business cycle. The empirical footprint of sector rotation has predictive power for the evolution of the economy and future bond market returns, even after controlling for relative sector returns. Contrary to many theories of price formation, trading activity, therefore, contains information that is not entirely revealed by resulting relative price changes. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]., Oxford University Press.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:rfinst:v:24:y::i:11:p:3688-3730
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-24