Vulnerable Growth

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2019
Volume: 109
Issue: 4
Pages: 1263-89

Score contribution per author:

2.681 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean of GDP growth, leading the lower quantiles of GDP growth to vary with financial conditions and the upper quantiles to be stable over time. Upside risks to GDP growth are low in most periods while downside risks increase as financial conditions become tighter. We argue that amplification mechanisms in the financial sector generate the observed growth vulnerability dynamics.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:4:p:1263-89
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-24