An Empirical Model of R&D Procurement Contests: An Analysis of the DOD SBIR Program

S-Tier
Journal: Econometrica
Year: 2021
Volume: 89
Issue: 5
Pages: 2189-2224

Score contribution per author:

8.043 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Firms and governments often use R&D contests to incentivize suppliers to develop and deliver innovative products. The optimal design of such contests depends on empirical primitives: the cost of research, the uncertainty in outcomes, and the surplus participants capture. Can R&D contests in real‐world settings be redesigned to increase social surplus? I ask this question in the context of the Department of Defense's Small Business Innovation Research program, a multistage R&D contest. I develop a structural model to estimate the primitives from data on R&D and procurement contracts. I find that the optimal design substantially increases social surplus, and simple design changes in isolation (e.g., inviting more contestants) can capture up to half these gains; however, these changes reduce the DOD's own welfare. These results suggest there is substantial scope for improving the design of real‐world contests but that a designer must balance competing objectives.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:emetrp:v:89:y:2021:i:5:p:2189-2224
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-24