Dynamics and drivers of per capita CO2 emissions in Asia

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to document recent trends in Asia's CO2 emissions and explore the mechanisms that drive those emissions for fourteen countries over the period 1971 to 2017. We apply a sequential method which has a strong relationship to policy indicators. First, an analysis of the dynamics is undertaken to identify if convergence is occurring, followed by a study of the determinants of those dynamics. This approach overcomes some of the limitations of previous work analyzing emission convergence by focusing on country specific characteristics such as energy mix and energy efficiency. The analysis reveals per capita CO2 emissions, energy intensity, carbonization and per capita incomes are slowly converging over the full sample. Yet this behavior is not uniform; there were differences in transition paths prior to and after the Asian Financial Crisis. The per capita income driver was the most important driver in explaining the dynamics and variation of emissions while carbonization and energy intensity drivers were less pronounced. The analysis reveals that the energy needs of the region's extraordinary economic growth favored fossil fuels and a surprising revelation is that despite having different per capita income levels China, Korea, and Vietnam all share a common convergence path. This paper provides further evidence against using carbon intensity solely as a target for climate policy.