Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises

S-Tier
Journal: Quarterly Journal of Economics
Year: 2022
Volume: 137
Issue: 1
Pages: 435-491

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This article shows that the inability to use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization leaves a government more vulnerable to a rollover crisis. We study a sovereign default model with self-fulfilling rollover crises, foreign currency debt, and nominal rigidities. When the government lacks monetary independence, lenders anticipate that the government would face a severe recession in the event of a liquidity crisis and are therefore more prone to run on government bonds. In a quantitative application to the Eurozone debt crisis, we find that the lack of monetary autonomy played a central role in making Spain vulnerable to a rollover crisis. Finally, we argue that a lender of last resort can go a long way toward reducing the costs of giving up monetary independence.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:qjecon:v:137:y:2022:i:1:p:435-491.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24