A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2005
Volume: 37
Issue: 11
Pages: 1257-1266

Authors (3)

J. M. Binner (not in RePEc) R. K. Bissoondeeal (Aston University) A. W. Mullineux (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.336 = (α=2.02 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:11:p:1257-1266
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-24