Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment

A-Tier
Journal: Economic Journal
Year: 2021
Volume: 131
Issue: 639
Pages: 2763-2796

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We document a strong political cycle in bank credit and industry outcomes in Turkey. In line with theories of tactical redistribution, state-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province based on electoral competition and political alignment of incumbent mayors. This effect only exists in corporate lending and creates credit constraints for firms in opposition areas, which suffer drops in assets, employment and sales but not firm entry. Financial resources and factors of production are misallocated as more efficient provinces and industries suffer the greatest constraints, reducing aggregate productivity.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:econjl:v:131:y:2021:i:639:p:2763-2796.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24