Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Monetary Economics
Year: 2017
Volume: 90
Issue: C
Pages: 1-12

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

The literature on cognition and communication documents that people use round numbers to convey uncertainty. This paper introduces a method of quantifying the uncertainty associated with round responses in pre-existing survey data. I construct micro-level and time series measures of inflation uncertainty since 1978. Inflation uncertainty is countercyclical and correlated with inflation disagreement, volatility, and the Economic Policy Uncertainty index. Inflation uncertainty is lowest among high-income consumers, college graduates, males, and stock market investors. More uncertain consumers are more reluctant to spend on durables, cars, and homes. Round responses are common on many surveys, suggesting numerous applications of this method.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:moneco:v:90:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-24