Modeling systemic risk with Markov Switching Graphical SUR models

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Econometrics
Year: 2019
Volume: 210
Issue: 1
Pages: 58-74

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We propose a Markov Switching Graphical Seemingly Unrelated Regression (MS-GSUR) model to investigate time-varying systemic risk based on a range of multi-factor asset pricing models. Methodologically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme in which latent states are identified on the basis of a novel weighted eigenvector centrality measure. An empirical application to the constituents of the S&P100 index shows that cross-firm connectivity significantly increased over the period 1999–2003 and during the financial crisis in 2008–2009. Finally, we provide evidence that firm-level centrality does not correlate with market values and it is instead positively linked to realized financial losses.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:econom:v:210:y:2019:i:1:p:58-74
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-24