How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
Year: 2018
Volume: 10
Issue: 4
Pages: 36-78

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of punishment severity on jury decision-making using archival data from London's Old Bailey Criminal Court from 1772 to 1871. We exploit two natural experiments in English history, resulting in sharp decreases in punishment severity: the offense-specific abolition of capital punishment and the temporary halt of penal transportation during the American Revolution. Using difference-in-differences to study the former and a pre-post design for the latter, we find a large, significant and permanent impact on jury behavior: juries are more likely to convict overall and across crime categories. Moreover, the effect size differs with defendants' gender.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aejpol:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:36-78
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24