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α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
Abstract This paper asks whether macroeconomic policy can affect fertility and education by documenting a slow-down of long-term improvements in these two outcomes in the wake of a major protectionist shock that shielded low-skilled individuals from the adverse consequences of the first wave of globalisation. We build a novel dataset for 19th-century France where, following decades of rising grain imports at low prices, high tariffs on cereal were introduced in 1892, shifting relative prices in favour of agriculture and away from industry. We exploit regional data that allow us to measure differences in the intensity of the protectionist shock and find that the tariff halted the long-term increase in schooling and slowed-down the decline in fertility that were already well underway.