New score-driven scale and shape interactions: an application to international stock indices

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2026
Volume: 58
Issue: 2
Pages: 293-313

Authors (2)

Szabolcs Blazsek (Mercer University) Morgan Hall (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper introduces a score-driven volatility model for the $t$t distribution, the Beta-$t$t-QVAR (quasi-vector autoregressive) model, in which the scale and degrees of freedom parameters interact through a multivariate score-driven filter. Both components of the filter influence the conditional volatility of returns. This paper aims to improve the statistical and forecasting performances of Beta-$t$t-EGARCH (exponential generalized AR conditional heteroscedasticity). The Beta-$t$t-QVAR model and the conditions of its maximum likelihood (ML) estimation are presented. Beta-$t$t-QVAR is applied to 15 international stock indices using data from December 1997 to April 2024. The in-sample statistical and out-of-sample density forecasting performances of Beta-$t$t-QVAR, normal-GARCH (NGARCH), asymmetric power-ARCH (APARCH), and Beta-$t$t-EGARCH are compared. Beta-$t$t-QVAR is superior to NGARCH, APARCH, and Beta-$t$t-EGARCH, motivating its practical use for financial forecasting.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:v:58:y:2026:i:2:p:293-313
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24