Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
We develop a quantitative life-cycle model to study the impact of Social Security on the US natural interest rate, r∗. Past reforms mitigated the r∗ decline, raising the natural rate by approximately 1 percentage point between 1970 and 2015 through higher replacement rate and retirement age. In the future, increasing the retirement age would counteract the downward pressure on r∗ due to demographics more than reforms entailing higher contribution or lower replacement rates, with the latter reform delivering the lowest r∗ value across different future productivity scenarios for the US economy.