The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits

S-Tier
Journal: Quarterly Journal of Economics
Year: 1998
Volume: 113
Issue: 3
Pages: 949-963

Score contribution per author:

8.043 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

How do governments react to the accumulation of debt? Do they take corrective measures, or do they let the debt grow? Whereas standard time series tests cannot reject a unit root in the U. S. debt-GDP ratio, this paper provides evidence of corrective action: the U. S. primary surplus is an increasing function of the debt-GDP ratio. The debt-GDP ratio displays mean-reversion if one controls for war-time spending and for cyclical fluctuations. The positive response of the primary surplus to changes in debt also shows that U. S. fiscal policy is satisfying an intertemporal budget constraint.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:qjecon:v:113:y:1998:i:3:p:949-963.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-24