On the GDP effects of severe physical hazards

B-Tier
Journal: European Economic Review
Year: 2025
Volume: 175
Issue: C

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We use local projection methods with instrumental variables to analyze a panel dataset that links monetary damages and geophysical hazard strength (which serve as our instruments), associated with a wide range of severe weather events. This approach allows us to understand the GDP impact of these events at the country level. The estimated impulse response functions indicate a persistent GDP decline lasting several years after an increase in disaster-related monetary damages. More severe disasters leave a disproportionately larger negative effect on the economy. For the top 10 percent of disasters, GDP remains approximately 2 percent lower in the medium term (5-7 years) and does not fully recover over the 10-year horizon of our analysis. When disaggregating by disaster type, we find similar results across categories, with storms emerging as the primary driver. High-income countries experience significantly smaller effects than middle- and low-income countries. Our findings are robust to alternative impact measures, such as disaster-related deaths, the number of people affected, or a simple disaster occurrence indicator.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eecrev:v:175:y:2025:i:c:s0014292125000698
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24