Optimal Taylor rules when targets are uncertain

B-Tier
Journal: European Economic Review
Year: 2019
Volume: 119
Issue: C
Pages: 274-286

Authors (2)

Boehm, Christoph E. (University of Texas-Austin) House, Christopher L. (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We analyze the optimal Taylor rule in the standard New Keynesian model when output and inflation are imperfectly observed. When the central bank observes inflation and the output gap with error, the optimal Taylor rule features tempered responses so as not to impart unnecessary volatility to the economy. If the Taylor rule is expressed in terms of estimated output and inflation, it is optimal to respond infinitely strongly to estimated deviations from the targets. Because filtered estimates are based on current and past observations, such Taylor rules appear to exhibit interest rate smoothing even though the monetary authority has no explicit preference for smooth interest rates. Under such a Taylor rule, the estimates of inflation and the output gap are perfectly negatively correlated. In the data, these gaps are slightly positively correlated, suggesting that the central bank is systematically underreacting to estimated inflation and the output gap.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eecrev:v:119:y:2019:i:c:p:274-286
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24