Forecasting Euro-Area Macroeconomic Variables Using a Factor Model Approach for Backdating

B-Tier
Journal: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Year: 2015
Volume: 77
Issue: 1
Pages: 22-39

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="obes12053-abs-0001"> <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>We suggest to use a factor model based backdating procedure to construct historical Euro-area macroeconomic time series data for the pre-Euro period. We argue that this is a useful alternative to standard contemporaneous aggregation methods. The article investigates for a number of Euro-area variables whether forecasts based on the factor-backdated data are more precise than those obtained with standard area-wide data. A recursive pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting experiment using quarterly data is conducted. Our results suggest that some key variables (e.g. real GDP, inflation and long-term interest rate) can indeed be forecasted more precisely with the factor-backdated data.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:obuest:v:77:y:2015:i:1:p:22-39
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24